[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 19 1316 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50119
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jan 2005, 1312UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Jan 2005 until 21 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 039
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 022

COMMENT: This morning a \'triple\' flare erupted from Catania 05 (NOAA
0720). At 08:22 UT GOES recorded a X1.4 flare, this was preceded by a
M6.7 flare at 07.31 and followed by a M2.7 flare at 10:24 UT. LASCO
images already show evidence of an associated CME, directed to the
north-west, i.e. not full halo. Therefore, we do not expect it to have
major geomagnetic consequences. At present, the >10MeV and >30 MeV
proton flux levels are still above the event threshold. The X1.4 flare
of this morning didn't\'t cause a new rise in the flux levels, so we
expect the proton event to end soon. The major geomagnetic storm which
started yesterday (18th) marked the arrival of the full halo CME related
to the X3.8 flare on 17th January. Bz is still negative (0>Bz>-10), but
we expect the geomagnetic storm to end by this evening (19th). At
present the solar wind speed is 800 km/s. For the next days we expect
active to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Also notice the appearance
of a c! coronal hole, now situated in the NE quadrant of the solar disk.
It could give rise to active geomagnetic conditions on 22-23 January.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 092
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 124
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 062

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
18  1538  1551 1559 N14W40 M4.6 2N   100                            05 0720

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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