[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 20 1310 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50120
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Jan 2005, 1251UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Jan 2005 until 22 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 040
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 017

COMMENT: Late tonight, early tomorrow, we are expecting the glancing
blow of the CME accompanying the X1.4 flare of Jan 19 (peaking at 08:22
UT). Minor storm conditions are possible. It is not clear yet, if there
is a CME accompanying the X7.1 flare of this morning, peaking at 07:01
UT. The proton fluxes increased drastically around the peak-time of the
flare. This increase was flare driven. The proton storm (all curves
passed the threshold) is still in progress.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 133
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 057

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
19  0658  0731 0755 N19W47 M6.7 2N  5000 CTM/1,III/2                05 0720
19  0803  0822 0840        X1.3          II/2,IV/2                  05 0720 
full halo CME (08:22 in LASCO)
19  1019  1024 1029 N18W47 M2.7 1N       III/3                         0720 
3th part of a triple flare
19  1532  1540 1548 N13W50 M1.6 2F                                     0720
20  0636  0701 0726        X7.1                                     05 0720
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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