[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 03 1243 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50103
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Jan 2005, 1203UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Jan 2005 until 05 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 017

COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA 0715) continues as the only source 
of
significant solar activity, but it has remained relatively quiet. Recent
activity was limited to 3 C-class flares. We expect more C-flares from this
active region, with a nearly fifty-fifty probability for an M-class flare.
The earth is currently still experiencing the influence of a fast solar wind
stream from a coronal hole. The solar wind speed has now declined to about 
600
km/s and the IMF is alternating between mild northwards and southwards
orientation. With more LASCO coronagraph data becoming available, CACTUS has 
now
detected the CME late on Dec 30 (accompanying the M4.2 flare) as a partial 
halo
CME. However, most of the plasma was ejected to the east, so we expect no 
effect
from this CME. The CMEs accompanying the M1.2 flare on Dec and the X1.7 
flare on
Jan 01 were also mostly eastwards, but the shock front may still reach the 
earth
later today. The impact of that would however remain limited, so the 
geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain at active level, maybe briefly reaching 
minor
storm conditions.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 2 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 050
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 100
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 036

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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