[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class and
B-class flares occurred in Region 715 (N05E08). Region 715, which
produced an X1 flare on 01 January, continues in a decay phase.
Region 717 (N08W86) is growing in size as it approaches the west
limb, but so far has produced only B-class activity. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from
Region 715. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 717 as
it rotates around the west limb.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. High
speed coronal hole flow, possibly combined with weak transient flow
from the late December CME activity, is responsible for this
disturbance. Solar wind speed increased to over 800 km/s by the
middle of the period and ranged from 700 - 850  km/s for the
remainder of the day.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storming. The high speed
coronal hole stream in progress now is expected to persist through
03 January. A CME associated with the X1 flare early on 01 January
is expected to impact the geomagnetic field on 03 January. As a
result, minor to major storm periods are possible on 03 and 04
January. Storming should subside by 05 January. Expect quiet to
unsettled levels with isolated active periods on the 5th.

III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    30/25/20
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 100
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  095/095/090
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  020/030-015/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/35/25
Minor storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/30
Minor storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    20/10/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
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http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
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KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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