[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 719 (S08E55)
remains a two-spot beta magnetic configuration, with several minor
plage fluctuations.  Region 718 (S07E46) continues to show no
notable activity.  Region 720 (N09E69) was newly numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 719 continues to have a fair chance for flare
activity, but poses little threat for greater than an isolated
C-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.  Interplanetary
magnetic field and solar wind have both been relatively steady for
the last 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  No significant
disturbance anticipated for 11 Jan, but a large coronal hole is
moving into geoeffective position for 12 and 13 Jan.  Most of the
high-speed solar wind stream will be above Earth's orbit, and should
only provide a slight potential for active to isolated minor
storming levels.

III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 090
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  085/090/090
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/008-010/015-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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