[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 715 (N05E21)
produced an X1.7 at 01/0031 UTC with an associated Type IV radio
sweep and a Type II radio sweep (760 km/s).  A Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME) may have been produced in association with this flare, but
could not be confirmed due to the unavailability of solar imagery.
Region 715 has decayed slightly in size and magnetic complexity, and
now maintains a beta-gamma configuration.  No new regions were
numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 715 may produce M-class and isolated X-class
flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  The greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels all three days.  Active
conditions are expected on 2-3 January from the effects of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar wind stream, and from
potential effects of CME shocks associated with the M-class flares
observed 30 and 31 December.  Isolated minor storming mid-day on 3
January and into 4 January is possible from a CME shock associated
with today's X-class flare.  Activity should subside late on 4
January to quiet to unsettled levels.

III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    50/50/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 099
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan  100/095/095
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  012/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  015/020-020/030-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm


_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation