[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C1.1 flare occurred at
11/2329Z from Region 718 (S07E19).  Region 718 and 720 (N13E37) have
exhibited significant growth in both area and number of spots.
Region 720 increased its area from 50 millionths to 420 millionths
since the last reporting period.  However, both regions still
maintain a beta magnetic structure and have been relatively quiet so
far.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity.  Region 720 is the most likely
source for an M-class flare due to it continual growth.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm levels.  Minor
storm levels occurred due to the onset of a geoeffective coronal
hole.  Solar wind speed has increased from approximately 400 km/s to
700 km/s.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm levels
possible on 13 January.  Quiet to active conditions are expected on
14 January while quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15
January as the high speed stream diminishes.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    30/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 102
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  015/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  010/020-010/015-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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