[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. Region 715 (N04W46)
is now a small simple beta spot group and is the only sunspot group
on the visible disk. A new active region is rotating onto the
visible disk near S08. No significant activity was noted.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed remains elevated;
however, IMF Bz was sustained northward for most of the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high
again today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Weak transient
flow from CME activity on 04 and 05 January may create occasional
active periods on 07 and 08 January. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on 09 January.

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 083
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  011/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  015/015-015/020-008/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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