[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 719 (S09E65)
produced an M2.4 at 0854Z on 09 Jan which was accompanied by Type II
radio emissions indicating a CME.  Though it is reported as a small
region, it continues to produce several plage fluctuations and point
brightenings.  Flare potential for this region remains fair.  Region
718 (S06E54) continues to shrink, loosing another sunspot over
yesterday with no other significant activity noted.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There does, however exist the slight chance that Region 719 will
produce an isolated M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
solar wind transient activity of the previous few days has subsided,
with solar wind speeds returning to a nominal 450 km/s.  The
geomagnetic field did incur a 12 nT sudden impulse on 09 Jan at
1042Z, but it was of insufficient strength and duration to cause a
storm-level response.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 10 through 12 Jan.
There is a possibility for an isolated period of active or minor
storming levels on 12 Jan due to the grazing impact of a coronal
hole induced high speed solar wind stream.  The CME activity
generated by the M-class activity of 09 Jan is strongly directed
away from Earth, and is unlikely to generate elevated activity
levels.

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 088
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  090/085/090
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  020/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  005/008-005/008-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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