[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 718 (S06E32)
produced a very impulsive C1.4 on 11 Jan at 1616Z.  Regions 718 and
719 (S07E35) have been combined into Region 718.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 718 continues to show minor plage fluctuations with a fair
chance for isolated C-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz has been fluctuating +5 to -5
nT over the last 36 hours, generating periods of active levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  IMF fluctuations
associated with a large coronal hole have a potential to cause
periods of active levels through 13 Jan.

III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 094
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  010/010-010/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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