[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with an isolated C5 flare observed at 09/0353 UTC from Region 2360 (N15W25, Eac/beta-gamma). Consolidation was observed within the leader and trailer portion of the region, but overall areal coverage and spot count was unchanged. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three days (09-11 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to rise to moderate to high levels on days one through three (09-11 Jun), in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were under the influence of CH HSS effects. Bt fluctuated between 4-7 nT while Bz oscillated between north and south with a maximum southward component observed early in the period around -7 nT. Density remained low while speed was steady around 600 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards) with brief periods of variability to the positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be elevated under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS through days one and two (09-10 Jun). However, by mid to late on day one, solar wind speeds should be in decline. A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected by day three (11 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) during the period under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. An isolated minor storm period was observed during the 08/1500-1800 UTC in response to elevated wind speeds and a sustained southward Bz component between 08/1400 - 1600 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at unsettled to active levels with minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions likely late on day one (09 Jun) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (10 Jun) with mostly quiet conditions on day three (11 Jun) as CH HSS effects diminish.

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