[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels as several weak, C-class flares occurred. Region 2381 (N14E09, Eki/beta-gamma) increased in size as it gained more consolidated penumbral area throughout the spot group, but became less structurally complex as it lost mature penumbra within its intermediate spots. The region briefly developed an opposite polarity umbra within the trailer penumbra, but it dissipated before periods end. Solar synoptic analysis showed a contorted and twisted neutral line separating polarities through the region, but most of the stronger shear lay around areas of weaker magnetic intensity and the magnetic complexity weakened further as the period progressed. The region produced only a few weak C1/Sf flares during the period - the only flares of the period.

A solo penumbral spot rotated into view from the SE limb and was assigned as NOAA Region 2384 (S18E62, Hsx/alpha), but limited analysis could be conducted due to limb proximity. The five other numbered regions on the disk remained inactive and were stable or in slow decay.

An eruptive prominence from the SW limb was observed in SDO/AIA-193 imagery at about 08/0639 UTC, however analysis indicated any associated coronal mass ejection (CME) would likely be off the Sun-Earth line. A 7 degree long, linear filament centered at approximately N14W15 became active and disappeared between 08/0706-0833 UTC as observed in GONG/H-alpha and SDO/AIA imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available LASCO coronagraph imagery, however we await updated imagery to determine if CMEs occurred in relation to the eruptive prominence and filament disappearance, and if so, to ascertain geoeffectiveness.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (08-10 Jul) primarily due to the flare potential of Region 2381.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the period (08-10 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were representative of nominal conditions. Solar wind speeds were variable, but generally decreased during the period from an average of about 450 km/s down to about 400 km/s by periods end. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total field values held steady between 2-4 nT. The Bz component was variable, but mostly in a southward orientation with a maximum negative deflection of -3 nT. The phi component remained in a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: An ambient solar wind environment is expected to continue on days one and two (08-09 Jul). A recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to be preceded by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) late on day three (10 Jul), increasing the solar wind and enhancing the total field.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic field conditions were quiet under a relatively ambient solar wind and IMF environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels throughout days one and two (08-09 Jul). Late on day three (10 Jul), the onset of the CIR ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS will likely produce periods of active conditions.

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