[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Jul 27 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 27 0117 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 July 2015

Solar activity reached low levels this period. Region 2389 (S11, L=164, class/area=Dai/80 on 25 Jul) produced three low-level C-class flares throughout the period which were the largest observed events. Region 2389 produced a C1 flare at 24/0315 UTC, a C2/Sf flare at 24/1444 UTC, and a C1 flare at 26/1234 UTC but none of these events resulted in coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that were Earth-directed. Region 2390 (S15, L=198, class/area=Dac/130 on 26 Jul) underwent moderate penumbral development and increased in magnetic complexity late in the period, but remained largely unproductive. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery throughout the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 20, 26 Jul with moderate levels observed on 21-22, and 24-25 Jul. The electron flux decreased to normal levels on 23 Jul in response to enhanced geomagnetic field activity attributed to a combination of CME and coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 23 Jul due to a combination of the arrival of the 19 Jul CME (filament eruption) and the onset of a weak positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions were observed at 23/0300-0600 UTC and 23/1800-2100 UTC and G1 storm conditions were observed at 23/0600-0900 UTC. The geomagnetic field was at quiet or quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the period under an ambient solar wind environment followed by weak CH HSS influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 July - 22 August 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the period with a slight chance of M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity between 28 Jul-10 Aug due to the return of Region 2381 (N14, L=074) which produced two M-class flares last rotation.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 29 Jul, 01, 07, and 17 Aug with high levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 07 Aug with active levels expected on 29 Jul, 02, 08-09, and 19 Aug, all in response to the influence of recurrent CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field activity is expected throughout the remainder of the period under an ambient solar wind environment.

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