[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Aug 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2396 (S18E49, Dai/beta), the most complex spot on the disk, underwent growth in the leader, trailer, and intermediate spots during the period. Region 2394 (N11E09, Cai/beta) exhibited subtle growth with the development of several small intermediate spots. All other regions displayed little to no change over the past 24 hours.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on LASCO imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1 Minor) over the next three days (04-06 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period with an observed peak flux of 1156 pfu at 03/1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (04-06 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters suggested the fading enhancement of the negative polarity high speed stream moving off and returning the solar wind regime to mostly ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds decreased from around 500 km/s to around 420 km/s by the end of the period. Bt was steady around 5 nT and Bz was variable between -3 nT and +3 nT. Phi remained predominantly in the negative sector (towards).

Forecast: Ambient solar wind conditions are expected during the next two days (04 Aug-05 Aug). Day three (06 Aug) is expected to see an enhancement in the solar wind speed, density, and total magnetic field with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under mostly ambient solar wind conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (04-05 Aug). An increase to unsettled to active levels is likely by day three (06 Aug), with the arrival of the anticipated CIR/CH HSS.

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