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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Aug 06 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2396 (S18E20, Dki/beta-gamma), the most complex on the disk, produced a C1/Sf flare at 06/0905 UTC. Over the past 24 hours Region 2396 has grown with most of the development in the intermediate spots. All other numbered regions on the Sun exhibited only minor changes.
A 7 degree long filament, centered near S27E11, began disappearing around 05/2158 UTC. No associated coronal mass ejection (CME) signature was observed on LASCO C2 imagery from the event.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with C-class flares likely and a slight chance M-class flares (R1 Minor) over the next three days (06-08 Aug).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period with an observed peak flux of 1206 pfu at 05/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one and two (06 Aug - 07 Aug) with the geomagnetic response to the positive polarity coronal hole (CH) lowering peak electron flux. Peak electron flux may reach high levels by day 3 (08 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the forecast period.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment started the period under ambient conditions. After 06/0000 UTC a slow and steady increase in total field and density was observed. Around 06/0630 UTC there was a Phi angle transitions from negative (towards) to positive (away), a drop in density, and an increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to near 500 km/s. These signatures suggest the onset of the anticipated co-rotating interaction region ahead of the high speed stream associated with the recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Peak total field has been enhanced to around 12 nT. Bz has seen a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT and has remained predominantly south after the Phi angle transition to the positive (away) sector.
Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remained enhanced on days one and two (06 Aug - 07 Aug) under the influence of the coronal hole. By day three (08 Aug) wind speeds are expected to remain elevated but begin trending downward and total field is expected to be around 5 nT.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period with quiet conditions. Active conditions were reached during the 09-12 UTC synoptic period as the geomagnetic field responded to the onset of the positive polarity coronal hole.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels on days one and two (06 Aug - 07 Aug). Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) are possible early on day two (07 Aug). Day three (08 Aug) is expected to be at mostly unsettled conditions from a drop in total field strength decreasing the potential for a significant geomagnetic response.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Aug 06 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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