[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Aug 10 16:10 UTC

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Aug 10 0520 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 August 2015

Solar activity was at low levels this period. Region 2396 (S17, L=038, class/area=Ekc/840 on 09 Aug) was the most productive region on the visible disk this period, but only produced C-class flare activity. Region 2396 produced a total of 18 C-class flares throughout the period, the largest of which was a C5/Sf flare at 07/1941 UTC.

Two filament eruptions from the southeast quadrant were observed this period, but were not Earth-directed. The first eruption, centered near S27E45 and estimated to be 25 degrees in extent, was observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 304 imagery at around 07/1809 UTC. The associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 07/2048 UTC but was directed well south and east of the Sun-Earth line. The second eruption, centered near S36E78 and estimated to be 18 degrees in extent, was observed lifting off at around 07/2240 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. There was not an obvious CME signature with the second eruption but it's possible that it could have been obscured by the CME associated with the first eruption. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 06 and 08 Aug and was at high levels throughout the remainder of the summary period with a peak flux value of 2,250 pfu observed at 09/1825 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 07 Aug with active levels observed on 06 and 07 Aug in response to the influence of multiple recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the summary period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 August - 05 September 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the outlook period with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity on 10-14 Aug and 27 Aug-05 Sep due to the flare potential of Region 2396 (S17, L=038).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels on 10-11, 17-24, 27-29 Aug and 02-05 Sep with high levels expected on 12-16, 25-26, 30-31 Aug and 01 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 10 Aug and 03, 05 Sep with active levels expected on 11, 17, 23, 27 Aug and 02, 04 Sep due to the influence of multiple recurrent CH HSSs. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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