[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2415 (S19W91, Bxo/beta) made its transit around the limb but also produced the largest flare of the period, a C2/Sf flare at 23/0730 UTC. Region 2420 (N10E44, Ekc/beta-gamma) remained the largest region, though slight decay was observed in both leader and trailing spots. New Region 2422 (S20E43, Cao/beta) was numbered today, and showed growth in areal coverage and spots. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares over the forecast period (23-25 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at normal background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (23 Sep) followed by an increase to high levels on days two and three (24-25 Sep) due to elevated solar wind speeds. With less than a slight chance (5% probability), we will continue to watch for the risk of another enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux, if another CME occurs from Region 2415 with proximity to the west limb for day one (23 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at quiet background levels for days two and three (24-25 Sep).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated elevated solar wind conditions from an unknown source. Solar wind velocities gradually decreased from around 600 km/s to near 490 km/s by periods end. Bt experienced a slight enhancement from around 5nT early to 9nT for the last few hours of the period. Bz was predominately positive early, then began to vary near 23/0500 UTC with a maximum deviation of -9nT. Phi angle was variable but predominantly in a negative (away from the sun) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated but waning, over the next three days (23-25 Sep), before the next anticipated feature, a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream, expected just beyond the three day forecast period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to unsettled levels with possible isolated periods of active levels for day one (23 Sep) due to enhanced conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for days two and three (24-25 Sep) as the geomagnetic field recovers to ambient conditions.

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