[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an impulsive M1/1f flare at 27/1040 UTC from Region 2422 (S20W10, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Slight decay was observed in Region 2421 (N17W28, Dai/beta) and the trailing spots of Region 2420 (N11W10, Fai/beta-gamma). Consolidation occurred in the leading spots of Region 2422. Slight growth was observed in Region 2423 (S09W58, Cri/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares over the forecast period (27-29 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 976 pfu observed at 26/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on days one through three (27-29 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels for days one through three (27-29 Sep).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were near nominal conditions with solar wind speeds between 416 km/s and 481 km/s. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal conditions for days one through three (27-29 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods possible over the next three days (27-29 Sep).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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