[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Jul 11 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Jul 11 0216 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 July 2022

Solar activity was at low levels all seven days of the period with moderate levels observed on 08 Jul and 10 Jul. At 08/2049 UTC, Region 3053 (N15, L=133, class/area Eko/700 on 08 Jul) produced an M2.5 long duration event with a 230 sfu Tenflare and non Earth-directed CME. At 10/2343 UTC, Region 3056 (S15, L=076, class/area Cro/060 on 10 Jul) produced an M1.3 flare.

Additional significant activity during the period included a C8.5 flare observed at 09/1348 UTC from Region 3047 (S19, L=243, class/area Cro/050 on 02 Jul) with a 828 km/s Type II Sweep and non Earth-directed CME. This event also enhanced the 10 MeV proton flux described in more detail below. Later on the 9th, at 2245 UTC, Region 3052 (N15, L=153, class/area Cro/060 on 07 Jul) produced a C4.6 flare with a non Earth-directed CME.

Overall, the period saw a total of 41 C-class and 2 M-class flares with a majority of the C-class activity originating from Regions 3053 and 3056. All CME activity during the period was analyzed and modeled as Earth misses.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit reached enhanced levels of 4.98 pfu at 09/1805 UTC following the C8.5 flare from Region 3047 off the W limb. Levels decreased to background by the end of 10 Jul.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels through the period with a peak flux of 336 pfu observed at 05/1720 UTC..

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the period. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed on 04 Jul due to effects from the 28 Jun CME. Quiet levels were observed on 05 Jul through midday on 07 Jul. By midday on 07 Jul through 08 Jul, unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed due to effects from late 04 Jul CME. Quiet to unsettled levels prevailed on 09-10 Jul.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 July - 06 August 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts on 11-17 Jul and 30-31 Jul and 01-06 Aug, due to potential flare activity from active and complex regions. Very low to low levels are expected to prevail on 18-29 Jul.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 15-20 Jul and 24-30 Jul due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 11-14 Jul, 21-23 Jul, 31 Jul and 01-16 Aug.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 11-14 Jul, 22-25 Jul and 03-04 Aug with active intervals likely on 12-14 Jul, 22-24 Jul and 03 Aug and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 13 Jul and 23 Jul, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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