Hello,
I've been trying to find a good explanation for the decline in JA activity
that many have noted. I've gathered some interesting data but I'm still not
satisfied that I have the answer. Here's where I am so far on this subject.
It's interesting that Mike mentions JA activity from the late 1970s. With
the help of Aoki-san, JR1UTH, at the JARL contest division, I got the
statistics for log submissions for Japan's main domestic contest, the All JA
Contest, going back to 1975. Interestingly, these figures show that log
submissions for this event peaked in 1981 at 4,101. The bottom was reached
in 2001 at 1,943. There have been ups and downs (logs bumped up to 2135 in
2003), but the trend is quite clear.
I do not have much data on JA participation in DX contests but I do know
that the big guns on the West Coast used to work 2,000+ stations in the big
SSB DX tests back in the 1970's. If someone who has been active over these
could tally the number of JA stations they have worked every year for the
last 25 years it would yield some interesting data about when the peak
occurred in JA activity in DX contests. (I think we're mostly talking about
SSB activity, because less than 8% of Japan's 3.1 million licensees ever
learned CW. It would be very interesting and instructive to see if CW
contest activity has fallen as much as phone activity has.)
The puzzling thing about the decline in JA activity in domestic contests is
that this peaked well before the number of JA stations peaked. In 1981,
there were 486,000 station licenses in Japan. As a result of the phenomenal
growth in JA licensing during the 1980's and early 1990's, station licenses
grew to a peak of nearly 1.4 million in 1995. Since then the number of
station licenses has fallen back to 659,000 as huge numbers of amateurs have
failed to renew their licenses (station license renewal is required every
five years). (Amateur radio is basically imploding in Japan, a phenomenon
that should be of great interest to Americans in particular as we prepare to
introduce a system similar to the Japanese system in our own country. But
that's a different subject.)
So the real question is why were Japanese amateurs more interested in
contesting back in the 1970s than they were in later years. New hams in both
the 1970's and the 1990's were generally quite young - mostly high school
and college students. Many new hams in the 1970's got on HF and participated
in contests, but most of the new hams in the 1990's generally did not. One
out of every 119 Japanese stations submitted a log in the 1981 All JA
Contest. In 1995 it was one out of 497.
Having been in and out of Japan over this whole period, I don't think the
explanation is that it was easier to put up HF antennas then than now; this
could be a small factor but it's never been very easy for urban dwellers to
do this. It's understandable that a lot of those young people who got their
licenses in the 1970's would drop out once they took jobs, got married,
moved out of daddy's house into a small apartment and became absorbed in
their careers. But why did those who came along after them fail to get
interested in HF and contesting? The only explanation I can think of is that
the personal computer, video games (and maybe the mobile phone) drew their
interest away from ham radio. But why did all those people bother to get
their licenses in the first place?
There may be some hope for more JA contesting activity in a few years. It is
possible that some of the folks who were active in HF contesting years ago
as students will come back to ham radio and contesting after they retire. A
ham who was 20 in 1975 could be retiring in 5-10 years. Many now have their
own single-family homes and could put up an HF antenna. The Japanese
operator's license is issued for life so any time he wants, a Japanese
license holder can apply for a station license and get back on the air
without taking another exam. Hopefully, many who have fond memories of
contesting from when they were young will feel the urge to get back on the
air once they have a little free time in their lives.
Looking further out, however, the picture does not look so bright, a problem
that both Japanese and American contesting seem to have in common.
73,
Hal W1NN & 7J1AAI
----- Original Message -----
From: "mike l dormann" <w7dra@juno.com>
To: <cq-contest@contesting.com>
Cc: <cq-contest@contesting.com>
Sent: Monday, June 21, 2004 9:05 AM
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Where are the JA's
> well, no luck on 160 but worked 4 on 80 cw the AADX test.
>
> where are all the JAs?
>
> i looked back at my record of the AA results from 1978/79/80/81, and i
> was working 20 - 30 JA stations per year on 80 meters, with the same
> equipment i have today (HRO60, arc5, 810 amp, vertical dipole on the edge
> of a cliff facing northwest)
> i only heard 3 loud (569) JA stations, JG1ZUY, JN1VNW, and ZE1ZWT, for
> the two nights on 80.
>
> the first year i entered (1963) i worked 3 stations on 80 cw with a
> DX100, super pro, and a dipole.............
>
> what goes around comes around
>
> mike w7dra
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