Re: [CQ-Contest] Will the next solar cycles be weaker than current Solar Cycle 24?

[David Gilbert <xdavid@cis-broadband.com>]

I don't remember that at all.  I saw a lot of different forecasts, and 
none claimed that Cycle 24 was going to be a record.
Here is a link to a pdf file from 2008 that summarized fifty (50!) 
different forecasts for Cycle 24.
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11207-008-9252-2.pdf

*  Roughly 80% of those 50 forecasts predicted a maximum of 140 or less, 
compared to the maximum for Cycle 23 of 180.
*  The highest of any the 50 predictions for Cycle 24 was about 185 ... 
roughly even with Cycle 23 and well below Cycle 19's record figure of 250.
*  The average for all 50 predictions was a peak of 115, while the 
actual peak for Cycle 24 was 116.
Bashing scientists seems to be great sport in some circles, but I'll 
take their word any day over that of someone that didn't even bother to 
fact check their own comment.  That seems to be a common theme in 
general nowadays.
Dave   AB7E



On 11/15/2017 4:35 PM, John Geiger wrote:
> If you remember near the end of Cycle 23, scientists were predicting that
> Cycle 24 might be the largest one on record.  Shows how good their
> predictions are.
>
> 73 John AF5CC
>
> On Wed, Nov 15, 2017 at 4:37 PM, Doug Renwick <ve5ra@sasktel.net> wrote:
>
> > Hopefully they are not the same so named scientists that guessed the world
> > was going to heat up due to man made pollution.
> >
> > Doug
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> >
> > Our scientists, physicists and engineers may enjoy this recent article:
> >
> >
> > https://arxiv.org/pdf/1711.04117.pdf
> >
> >
> > It predicts that upcoming Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than current
> > Solar Cycle 24. It also predicts that Solar Cycle 26 in the 2030s will
> > be about the same as Solar Cycle 25
> >
> >
> > Those of us that can hang on for another 30 years are forecast to
> > e njoy a stronger Solar Cycle 27. Solar Cycles 28 (in the 2050s)
> > and 29 (in the 2060s) are forecast to be even stronger...
> >
> >
> > 73
> > Frank
> > W3LPL
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