Issued: 2004 Aug 30 1227 UTC
Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 40830
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Aug 2004, 1148 UTC
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230 UTC, 30 Aug 2004 until 01 Sep 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 080 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 080 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The ACE and SOHO/CELIAS instruments recorded the arrival of a small
shock in the solar wind this morning (at 0528 and 0522 UT respectively). This
may be due to the partial halo CME that was detected in LASCO images of
2004/08/27 at 09:54 UT. Upon arrival of this event, the interplanetary magnetic
field turned strongly southwards, with values near -10nT. A few hours after the
shock arrival, perturbations in the geomagnetic field have been observed in many
geomagnetic stations, indicating the onset of a geomagnetic storm. We expect
minor storm conditions for the rest of the UT day.
On the sun, only one significant sunspot group is currently present: Catania 01
(NOAA 10633). Its level of activity has increased since this morning, and it
generated a C2.4 flare at 0311 UT. There is a small chance for another C-class
flare from this group before it rotates over the west limb.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Aug 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 026
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 086
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 011
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 007
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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