Issued: 2004 Aug 21 1239 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40821
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Aug 2004, 1229UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Aug 2004 until 23 Aug 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 012
COMMENT: The Kp index is at the disturbed level because of arrival of an
interaction region between slow and faster solar wind flows. This region
contains predominantly southward interplanetary magnetic field, but due to low
solar wind speed the Kp index is not more than 4. The fast flow probably comes
from the low-latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, which is now
situated at the Western limb and is almost invisible. We still expect the
possible arrival of the shock wave driven by the CME registered by LASCO on
August 18, but it will produce only a weak geomagnetic disturbance.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Aug 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 096
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 121
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 024
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 018
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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