Issued: 2004 Aug 31 1304 UTC
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 40831
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 31 Aug 2004, 1246 UTC
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230 UTC, 31 Aug 2004 until 02 Sep 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 003
COMMENT: The geomagnetic storm which has started yesterday is still continuing.
The solar wind speed reached a maximum of 460 km/s (ACE), presently the speed is
420-440 km/s. From yesterday (30/08) 21:00 UT onwards, the IMF is more mildly
pointed southward (-6nT) with short northward excursions. The NOAA 3-hourly Kp
indices from 00:00 today are 6454. We expect the geomagnetic storm to come to
reach its end by the end of the UT day.
Sunspot group catania 01 (NOAA 0663) has produced an M1.4 (long-duration) flare
peaking at 05:38 UT today (31/08). Since yesterday morning the background X-ray
flux level was rising continuously with mostly B flares on top of it, all coming
from the same active region (0663), which is turning over the western limb
today. No proton event was recorded.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 30 Aug 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 014
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 090
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 044
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 029
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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