Issued: 2004 Aug 20 1229 UTC
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 40820
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Aug 2004, 1216 UTC
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Aug 2004 until 22 Aug 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 025
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 012
COMMENT: The shock wave driven by the CME registered by SOHO/LASCO at 18:06 UT
on August 18 may probably arrive to the Earth early on August 22, producing a
weak geomagnetic disturbance. Currently Kp is rising because of predominantly
southward interplanetary magnetic field. This rise is probably caused by an
interaction region between the slow and fast wind. The fast solar wind flow
will probably come from the low-latitude coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere which is now situated close to the Western limb.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Aug 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 053
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 121
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 009
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 006
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
19 1329 1351 1416 S13W90 M2.1 90 0656 GOES-12/SXI derived location
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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