:Issued: 2004 Nov 29 1305 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41129
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Nov 2004, 1243UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Nov 2004 until 01 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 011
COMMENT: The solar activity is currently very low. The active regions now on
the disc are either stable or declining. Only a few C flares are expected, with
a very slight probability of an M flare from region 77 (NOAA707).
Since yesterday Nov.28 at about 19:00UT, the Earth entered a high-speed solar
wind stream associated with a trans-equatorial coronal hole, now located West of
solar central meridian. Bz fluctuates at times down to -10nT. This induces
unsettled geomagnetic conditions, with brief active intervals at high latitudes.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected to extend over the next 48 hours.
Thereafter, the coronal-hole influence should progressively decay.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 113
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 021
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 016
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
---
Outgoing mail is certified virus free by Grisoft AVG 6.0.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.802 / Virus Database: 545 - Release Date: 11/26/2004
_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
|