:Issued: 2004 Nov 20 1248 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41120
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Nov 2004, 1157UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Nov 2004 until 22 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar conditions remain quiet. After the disappearance of Catania
sunspot group 65 (NOAA 0700), the solar X-ray output strongly decreased. The
X-ray background is currently at the bottom of the B-level. None of the 5
sunspot groups currently on disk shows flaring activity of significance. We see
only a small chance for a C-class flare from Catania sunspot groups 69 (NOAA
0702) or 70 (NOAA 0704). The solar wind stream from the northern hemisphere has
led to the anticipated periods of active conditions. The estimated Kp index and
the K-index in Izmiran have reached the value 4. The solar wind speed started to
increase yesterday evening and is now stabel near 450km/s. The IMF is mostly
southwards with values down to -nT. We expect further perdiods of active
conditions for the next 48 hours, returning to quiet after that.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 065
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 102
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 009
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 006
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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