Looking at LASCO image movies of the last two coronal mass ejections I
overestimated the amount that was Earth directed. The end result in our favor
is that the related current geomagnetic storming is only minor to moderate
intensity. Trying to estimate just how Earth directed a CME is can be a hard
thing to judge sometimes. This should be the last geomagnetic storm associated
with sunspot group #10696 as it rotates around the west limb of the Sun.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
:Issued: 2004 Nov 12 1243 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41112
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Nov 2004, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Nov 2004 until 14 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 010
COMMENT: A minor geomagnetic storm took place during a few hours, from about
Nov. 11 23:00 to Nov. 12. 04:00UT. This storm was induced by a glancing solar
wind disturbance resulting from the Nov. 10 X2 flare and bringing a small
southward orientation of the IMF. Bz is now again largely positive and the solar
wind speed is decreasing steadily from a maximum of 650km/s, on Nov. 12 at 01:30
UT. After a few hours with active conditions still possible, we thus expect the
magnetosphere to return to quiet or unsettled conditions by the end of this day,
and also for the next few days, as no other CME is on its way to the Earth. The
>10MeV proton flux remains elevated and more or less constant at 60 pfu. This
flux will probably fall below event threshold by tomorrow, Nov. 13. Active
region 61 (NOAA696) is strongly declining and it will disappear at the West limb
later today. New active regions are appearing at the East limb, but none of them
seem to be complex or active. Therefore, the low activity of the last 2 days is
expected to continue for the coming days.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 095
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 038
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 027
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
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