:Issued: 2004 Nov 05 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41105
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Nov 2004, 1221UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Nov 2004 until 07 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=
50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 036
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 019
COMMENT: NOAA ARs 0696 and 0693 (Catania sunspot groups 61 and 57 respectively)
have the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. So, we expect an X-flare to
occur, probably in the NOAA AR 0696 which produced several M-flares recently.
Geomagnetic disturbances of at least a minor storm level are expected because of
several halo CMEs erupted from the NOAA AR 0696. This active region is very
close to the central meridian now, so any halo CME erupting from it will reach
the Earth and probably produce a significant geomagnetic disturbance.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 136
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 017
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 011
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
04 2142 2229 2253 N11E19 M2.5 1N 1800 CTM/1,II/1 61 0696
04 2253 2309 2326 N08E18 M5.4 1500 IV/1 61 0696
GOES-12/SXI derived location
05 1123 1130 1133 N07E15 M4.0 61 0696
GOES-12/SXI movie derived location
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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