:Issued: 2004 Nov 01 1249 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41101
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Nov 2004, 1136UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Nov 2004 until 03 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 035
COMMENT: On November 3 we expect the arrival of a partial halo CME detected by
CACTUS in LASCO C2 data starting at 08:30 UT on October 30. As evidenced by the
EIT data, the particle event started around 06:00 UT on November 1 is produced
by the West limb CME first observed by LASCO C2 at 06:06 UT. The source region
of this CME (probably the former NOAA AR 0684, Catania sunspot group 43) is
located behind the West limb and thus we do not expect the CME to reach the
Earth. The arrival of the CME-driven shock is, however, possible, but it will
probably produce only a moderate geomagnetic disturbance.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 31 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 139
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 021
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 013
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
1 0303 0322 0333 N11W47 M1.2 52 0691
SolarSoftEvents derived location
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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