:Issued: 2004 Nov 14 1227 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41114
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Nov 2004, 1214UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Nov 2004 until 16 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Two active regions are growing: 64 (NOAA699) and 65 (NOAA700). The
latter is now listed as beta-gamma magnetic configuration, and in fact looks
like a double region, side by side. Although the activity was very low until
now,
we predict C flares with the possibility of an isolated M flare, if the
abovementionned regions are continuing their growth. Based on EIT images, a
returning active region is about to appear at the NE limb.
The geomagnetic activity has been essentially quiet to unsettled. Although the
solar wind speed remains elevated at 480km/s, the IMF is currently weak and
oriented northwards. The geomagnetic field is thus expected to remain quiet over
the coming 3-day period.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 096
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 014
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 010
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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