:Issued: 2004 Nov 16 1242 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41116
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Nov 2004, 1211UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Nov 2004 until 18 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 014
COMMENT: Solar activity is still dominated by Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA
0700), which again generated a number of small C-class flares over the past 24
hours. We expect further C-class flares from this magnetically complex region,
with a small chance for an M-flare. In two days, this region will rotate over
the west limb. The active region visible in EIT at the east limb is not yet
visible in photospheric images. The previously X-flaring sunspot group Catania
52 (NOAA 0691) is also due back in a few days.
Geomagnetic conditions are quiet at the moment, but some small perturbations in
the solar wind causing short intervals of southward orientation of the IMF may
lead to occasional active conditions during the following days. The wind speed
is slightly more than 400 km/s at the moment.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 076
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 106
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 003
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 003
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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