[Propagation] KN4LF Daily RX Prop Outlook Update #2005-04A

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook Update #2005-004A

Issued Saturday 01/22/2005 at 1800 UTC

Yesterday I forecasted that partially geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal 
mass ejection #6 would produce no more than moderate to possibly strong 
(Kp-6-7) geomagnetic storming. I also said that though only partially 
geoeffective, the incoming CME screaming along at a withering 1004 km/s, was 
a very large impulse and very hard to judge as far as it's potential impact 
on our magnetic field. In any event I was wrong. During the day yesterday we 
saw severe (Kp-8) geomagnetic storming for at least six hours!

Just a few words concerning sunspot group #10720 that is rotating around the 
west limb of the Sun today, hoorah.

#1.) During #10720's transit across the visible face of the Sun it produced 
100 C class, 24 M class and 5 X class solar flares, quite prolific.

#2.) It produced at least six geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass 
ejections. The last CME that arrived on Friday 01/21/05 was so intense that 
it was followed by magnetopause crossings. In simpler terms Earth's magnetic 
field was compressed in the opposite direction of the Sun such that orbiting 
satellites including the space station were exposed to the full wrath of the 
Sun, very unhealthy to microprocessors and human DNA.

#3.) It produced an energetic excessive proton storm that reached 5040 pfu, 
the strongest of cycle 23. At one point protons actually penetrated to 
ground level in the polar regions!

#4.) Last but not least it produced at least 38 hours of geomagnetic 
storming.

Fortunately we will now see solar, space and geomagnetic weather return to 
some sense of normalcy.

But we also have recurrent sunspot group #10715, now re-numbered as 10725, 
which just rotated into view around the eastern limb of the Sun. Last solar 
rotation this sunspot group was a prolific producer of solar flares. It 
already has a beta-gamma twisted magnetic field and is capable of C & M 
class solar flares. This group has the potential to grow rapidly in size and 
complexity, similar to now departed sunspot group #10720.


73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net


Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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