:Issued: 2005 Feb 19 1308 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50219
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Feb 2005, 1259UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Feb 2005 until 21 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 017
COMMENT: The active region NOAA 732 finished its second passage across
the solar disc with a long-awaited M3.3 flare from behind the limb.
During its first passage across the disc, this active region was known
as the killer active region NOAA 720 that flared at the X-class level.
Flaring activity is expected to return to C-class activity from NOAA
733-734-735. Active geomagnetic conditions are expected due to a coronal
hole influence and the approaching Feb 16 halo CME.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX : 081
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 104
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 044
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 030
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA
NOTE
NONE
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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