[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible
on 04 April as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes
geoeffective.  On 05 April, quiet to active conditions are expected.
On 06 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 081
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  080/090/090
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 096

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  015/030-012/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
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HC-DX Propagation Channel: 
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



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