Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1.1/SF flare occurred from
Region 747 (S05W47) at 05/2007 UTC. New Region 750 (S08E84) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. Major
storm periods at middle latitudes with severe storm periods at
higher latitudes were observed between 05/0000 UTC and 05/0600 UTC.
At approximately 0200 UTC on 05 April, solar wind speed at ACE
increased from 560 km/s to 650 km/s while temperature, density, and
the IMF decreased. In addition, Bz remained southward for several
hours following this sudden change. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible on 06 April. On 07 and 08 April, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected as the coronal hole high speed stream moves
out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 088
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 022/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 012/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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