[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Current active
regions on the solar disk remain steady, with no new regions
numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through 19 Apr.

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 083
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  007/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    02/02/02
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
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HC-DX Propagation Channel: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



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