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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Nov 09 0211 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 08 November 2015
Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. The summary
period began with numerous weak to mid-level C-class flares from
Regions 2443 (N07, L=316, class/area Fkc/650 on 01 Nov) and 2445
(N15, L=026, class/area Dac/240 on 02 Nov) observed on 02-03
November. Activity increased to moderate levels (R1-Minor) on 04
November. At 04/0326 UTC, Region 2445 produced an M1/1n flare with
an associated Type II radio sweep (790 km/s estimated shock
velocity). In addition, discrete frequency bursts of 56,000 sfu and
41,000 sfu were observed on 245 MHz and 410 MHz, respectively.
Region 2445 also prodcued an M2/1n flare at 04/1203 UTC with an
associated Type II sweep (1033 km/s estimated shock velocity).
Shortly afterward, Region 2443 produced an M3/2b flare with
associated Type II (955 km/s estimated shock velocity) and Type IV
sweeps. This event also prodcued an associated partial-halo coronal
mass ejection (CME), first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1436
UTC.
By 05 November, activity levels declined to very low levels. Levels
increased to low on 06-07 November with weak to mid-level C-class
activity observed from Regions 2446 (N15, L-349, class/area Cro/020
on 01 Nov), 2448 (N06, L=234, class/area Dao/140 on 06 Nov), 2449
(S12, L=209, class/area Dao/150 on 07 Nov) and 2450 (S23, L=200,
class/area Bxo/010 on 07 Nov).
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels on 02-03 November and high levels on 04-07 November
due to enhanced solar wind speeds.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to major storm levels. The
summary period began with quiet to unsettled levels on 02 November.
Solar wind speeds, measured at the ACE spacecraft, were weak at
about 300 km/s. Field activity picked up to unsettled to minor storm
levels (G1-Minor) on 03-04 November due to effects from an
equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Wind parameters observed a rapid increase in winds speeds to
an average of about 675 km/s with a peak of near 770 km/s early on
04 November. Total field (Bt) increased to peak at 34 nT about
03/0700 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward
extent of -24 nT at 03/0620 UTC. Activity levels decreased to quiet
to active on 05 November through early on 06 November as effects
from the CH HSS waned. Quiet levels were observed from 06/0300-1800
UTC. During this time frame, wind speeds decreased to near 475 km/s
while Bt and Bz relaxed to nominal levels.
On 06/1800-2400 UTC, field activity increased to active levels and
further increased to minor to major storm levels (G1-G2 /
Minor-Moderate) for the first half of 07 November. This increase in
activity was attributed to the arrival of the 04 November CME. Wind
speeds increased to 719 km/s at 07/0257 UTC, Bt increased to 20 nT
late on 06 November and the Bz component varied between +18 nT to
-16 nT. The last half of 07 November through the first half of 08
November saw field conditions relax to quiet levels. Wind speeds
declined to about 425 km/s while Bt and Bz relaxed to nominal
levels. By midday on the 8th, wind parameters indicated the likely
onset of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent
positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds peaked to near 550 km/s late
on the 8th while Bt reached 10 nT and Bz was mostly southward to -6
nT.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 November - 05 December 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a
chance for moderate levels (R1-R2 / Minor-Moderate) through the
outlook period. Regions 2443 and 2449 , coupled with the return of
old Region 2437 (S18, L=098) on 12 November, are the regions most
likely to produce M-class activity.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit in the absence
of any significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels on 09-16 November and
again on 01-05 December due to an enhanced solar wind enviroment as
recurrent CH HSSs become geoeffective. Normal to moderate levels are
expected on 10-30 November.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 09-11 November. Minor storm levels (G1-Minor) are expected
on 09 November as a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS impacts
Earth. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 16-17 November due
to extended periods of southward Bz. Unsettled to active levels are
expected on 30 November - 02 December and again on 05 December, with
minor storm levels likely on 30 November and 01 December. This
activity is due to recurrent positive polarity CH HSSs. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for 12-15 and 18-29 November.
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![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Nov 09 16:10 UTC]()
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