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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. An emergence of flux from just beyond the southeast limb contributed the only notable flare of the period, a B5 flare at 09/0235 UTC. Region 2449 showed minor growth this period while the remaining active regions were either stable or in decay.

A filament eruption centered near N05E51 was observed lifting off in GONG/H-Alpha imagery between 09/0025-0240. Further analysis will be conducted to determine if there is a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event as more coronagraph imagery becomes available. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) flares over the next three days (09-11 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,280 pfu observed at 09/1155 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (09-11 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the likely onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speeds were steady between 450-500 km/s through the period. IMF total field strength values decreased from initial values near 10 nT to around 5 nT late in the period while Bz was primarily southward and steady near -4 nT. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation until around 08/1700 UTC when it became variable. Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain slightly enhanced (~450-550 km/s) over the next three days (09-11 Nov) due to continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels mid-day to late on day one (09 Nov) due to CIR effects followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active field conditions are expected on days two and three (10-11 Nov) due to continued but weakening CH HSS influence.

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