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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2443 (N07W31, Fhc/beta) remained the largest region on the disk but was stable and inactive. A new area flux emerged just beyond the southeast limb and contributed the largest flare of the period, a C1 flare at 06/0942 UTC. Region 2448 (N06E53, Dai/beta) was stable and produced one C-class flare during the period. Region 2446 (N16W71, Axx/alpha) grew slightly but was inactive.

A filament eruption centered near N06W50 was observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 193 imagery between 05/1435-1710 UTC, but no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) flares over the next three days (06-08 Nov) with Region 2443 being the likely source of event-level activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux value of 7,900 pfu observed at 05/1530 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on day one and early on day two (06-07 Nov). Enhanced geomagnetic field activity is expected to prompt a decrease to normal to moderate flux levels midday on day two through day three (07-08 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the waning influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from around 550 km/s early to near 475 km/s by periods end. IMF total field strength values were steady between 5-7 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT early in the period. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced midday on day two through day three (07-08 Nov) due to the anticipated arrival of the 04 Nov CME on day two followed by the onset of a positive CH HSS on day three.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels this period due to waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Nov) as CH HSS effects continue to subside. Quiet to unsettled conditions early on day two (07 Nov) are expected to increase to active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels beginning at around 07/1500 UTC due to the anticipated arrival of the 04 Nov CME. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day three (08 Nov) due to waning CME influence in addition to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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