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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 14 1230 UTC.

Solar activity declined to very low levels with no reportable flare activity. Region 2453 (N06W08 Bxo/beta) exhibited overall decay within the region while all other regions were stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (14-16 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high to very high levels, with a peak flux of 88,813 pfu observed at 13/1355 UTC, until mid-period when the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) caused a decrease to moderate flux levels.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels with a chance for high levels through the remainder of day one (14 Nov) due to continued CH HSS influence. A return to high flux levels is expected on days two and three (15-16 Nov) as CH HSS effects wane.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (14-16 Nov).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the likely onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds slowly increased from 405 km/s to about 480 km/s through about 14/1800 UTC. Winds speeds of 460 km/s to 480 km/s persisted through the end-of-the-period. IMF total field strength values reached 11 nT by about 14/1430 UTC before tailing off to 3 nT by periods end. The Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT between 13/1300-1500 UTC, but finished the period variable between +/- 2 nT. The phi angle was generally positive (away from the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the remainder of day one (14 Nov) through day two (15 Nov) due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. A return to near-background solar wind parameters is expected by day three (16 Nov) as CH HSS effects subside and we return to a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the remainder of day one (14 Nov) due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. As CH HSS influence weakens through the remainder of the forecast period, quiet to active field conditions are expected on day two (15 Nov) with quiet to unsettled levels expected on day three (16 Nov).

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