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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. An M3/2b flare was observed from Region 2449 (S12E24, Dai/beta) at 09/1312 UTC. A Type II radio sweep, with an estimated shock velocity 957 km/s, and a type IV radio sweep were observed with the event. An associated, partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09/1336 UTC. Analysis of the CME was completed and a WSA-Enlil model run was accomplished. The result revealed an Earth-directed component is likely with this event.

Region 2449 underwent some decay, as its intermediate spots dissipated slightly, however, some stressed magnetic field lines likely remain present due to weak shear in the vicinity of the trailer spots. Region 2448 (N06E06, Cao/beta) changed little during the period and was stable. Region 2443 (N07W89, Axx/alpha) continued to rotate to and beyond the west limb, making an accurate classification no longer possible. However, the region did produce some C1 flare activity, indicative of the regions continued instability. All other regions were either relatively stable or in gradual decay.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts on day one (10 Nov) primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 2443 and 2449. On days two and three (11-12 Nov), as Region 2443 rotates around the west limb, probabilities will decrease to a slight chance for R1-R2 Radio Blackouts.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 17,885 pfu observed at 09/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced in association with an M3/2b flare at 09/1312 UTC but remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (10-12 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Total magnetic field strength (Bt) peaked at 12 nT at 09/1926 UTC before it decreased and held steady between 7 to 10 nT the remainder of the period. The Bz component was variable, but had sustained periods of primarily southward orientation from 10/0535-0800 UTC and again from 10/0935-1122 UTC. Solar wind velocity was elevated due to the CH HSS. Speeds began the period between 450 - 500 km/s before they steadily rose to a peak of 733 km/s by 10/1042 UTC. The phi angle was primarily positive (away) from the Sun.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced but are likely to begin a gradual decline later on day one on into day two (10-11 Nov) due to continued, but waning CH HSS influence. During the later half of day two, the CME from the 9 Nov M3 flare, is expected to increase solar wind velocity and increase the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. Solar wind velocity and the total IMF strength is expected to remain elevated on into the early periods of day three (12 Nov) due to the CME influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue reaching active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels, with an isolated period of moderate (G2-Moderate) storming, on day one (10 Nov) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Active conditions are expected to continue into day two (11 Nov). Later on day two, a glancing blow from the 9 Nov CME is expected to impact Earths magnetosphere with periods of G1 geomagnetic storm levels. G1 storming is likely to continue into the early periods of day three (12 Nov).

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