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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 04 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels during the period. Region 2445 (N17W74, Eai/beta) was the most active spot group on the visible disk. It was responsible for the largest flares of the period; an impulsive M2 flare that was in progress at the time of this writing, an impulsive M1/1n flare at 04/0326 UTC, and several low to mid level C-class flares. Among the C-flares were a C1/Sf flare at 03/2335 UTC and a C3/Sf flare at 04/0032 UTC. These two flares, as well as the M1 flare, all appeared to have associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These events were submitted into the WSA Enlil model for analysis where it was determined that none of these events had an Earth-directed component. Since the M2 flare was just occurring, no coronagraph imagery was available to determine if a CME was associated with this event or not.
Also associated with the M1 flare were a Type II radio sweep (est. shock speed 790 km/s) and a 220 sfu Ten flare.
Region 2443 (N06W03, Fkc/beta) saw decay in its intermediate and trailer spot areas and began showing signs of magnetic simplification. It produced a non-impulsive, slow-rising C5/Sf at 03/1909 UTC. Further analysis determined the associated CME did not have an Earth-directed component and should have no effect on Earth.
Region 2447 (N03E17, Cro/beta), remained in a magnetically simple bipolar configuration and was mostly inactive throughout the period. A region of enhanced plage rotated onto the east limb near N12 during the period. Due to its proximity to the limb and foreshortening effects, accurate analysis to determine the magnetic structure of the spot group is degraded, and will be accomplished when it has rotated further onto the disk.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares for the next three days (04-06 Nov), primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 2443 and 2445. The new region of flux that rotated onto the visible disk earlier on day one (04 Nov) has remained fairly inactive, but may further increase flare potential over the next several days.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to just below high levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for day one (04 Nov), with high levels likely on all three days of the period (04-06 Nov) in response to elevated solar wind speeds from the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1-Minor levels for the next three days (04-06 Nov).
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected continued enhanced conditions in response to the positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds began the period averaging near 650 km/s before increasing to over 700 km/s by 03/1830 UTC. Speeds remained around the 700 km/s mark through approximately 04/0900 UTC, peaking at 770 km/s at 04/0405 UTC. Just after 04/0900 UTC, speeds began to decrease to end-of-period values near 610 km/s. The IMF total field strength varied between 5 nT and 12 nT, ending the period near 10 nT. The Bz component varied between 9 nT and -10 nT for most of the period, but settled in to end the period around -2 nT. The phi remained in a mostly negative orientation throughout most of the period.
Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced early on day one (4 Nov) as CH HSS conditions persist. Solar wind parameters should begin to recover from the CH HSS, with total field expected to be between 5 and 10 nT, Bz should return to near neutral values, and wind speeds should begin decreasing to the 500 to 600 km/s range.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels during the period as effects from the positive polarity CH HSS combined with a suspected weak transient to interact with Earths magnetosphere.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels on day one (04 Nov) with periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels expected and G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely early in the day in response to high solar wind speeds. Periods of active conditions are expected to persist into days two and three (05-06 Nov) as the CH HSS gradually subside.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Nov 04 20:07 UTC]()
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