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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2449 (S12E66, Cro/beta) exhibited slight growth and produced the largest flare of the period, a C4 flare at 06/1811 UTC. Newly numbered Region 2450 (S23E70, Bxo/beta) moved into view on the southeast limb and was responsible for two low-level C-class flares. The remaining active regions on the visible disk were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) flares over the next three days (07-09 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak value of 21,600 pfu observed at 06/1820 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (07-09 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the passage of an interplanetary shock believed to be associated with the CME from 04 Nov. Solar wind parameters were at background levels until 06/1735 UTC when the shock impacted ACE. Solar wind speeds increased from 440 km/s to a peak of near 700 km/s near 07/0300 UTC, then gradually decreased to near 550 km/s by the end of the period. Total field strength values increased from 5 nT to to as high as 19 nT before settling in the 10 nT to 14 nT range. Bz was mostly southward after 07/0200 UTC when it became steady in the -7 nT to -11 nT range. The phi angle was in a positive orientation until near 07/0300 UTC when it began to oscillate between the sectors. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next three days (07-09 Nov) due to continued CME effects early in the period followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) later in the period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field went from quiet early in the period to as high as G2 (Moderate) storm conditions due to CME effects.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels for the remainder of day one (07 Nov) due to continued CME effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day two (08 Nov) due to the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active field conditions are expected on day three (09 Nov) due to weakening CH HSS influence.

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