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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2443 (N06E10, Fkc/beta-delta) remained the largest and most magnetically complex group on the solar disk. The region maintained a weak delta classification in its intermediate spots, but appears to be weakening. Slight decay in penumbral area was observed near its trailer spots ,with separation beginning in its intermediate spot area. This region was responsible for the largest flare of the period, a C5/Sf flare at 02/1500 UTC, as well as the majority of the other flare activity during the period. Region 2445 (N16W63, Ekc/beta) also produced a few C-class flares during the period as it exhibited continued development in its trailer spot area as it moved closer to the western limb.

The CME noted in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 02/2117 UTC erupting from the W limb was analyzed and, although it had a full halo signature, it does not appear to have an Earth-directed component, due to its location well beyond the west limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) for the next three days (03-05 Nov), primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 2443 and 2445.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for day one (03 Nov), with high levels likely on days two and three (04-05 Nov) in response to elevated solar wind speeds from the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1-Minor levels for the next three days (03-05 Nov) as Region 2445 is in well connected portion of the solar disk.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at nominal levels for the first half of the period. At about 02/2214 UTC, total magnetic field strength (Bt) reflected a pronounced jump from around 3 nT to 10 nT. This uptick was followed within minutes by an increase in solar wind speed from around 320 km/s to about 410 km/s, as well as an increase in density. Conditions remained slightly enhanced for the next few hours, until approximately 03/0530 UTC, when Bt jumped from 4 nT to 22 nT, Bz dropped from -5 nT to -24 nT, and wind speeds began to increase. Bt reached a peak of 37 nT while Bz saw a maximum southward deflection to -24 nT. Wind speed saw a brief increase to near 700 km/s, and have remained steady near 665 km/s. These enhancements appear to be a reflection of the anticipated co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of the expected CH HSS.

Forecast: With the arrival of the anticipated CIR, the trans-equatorial CH HSS is expected to follow shortly and become geoeffective over the next few hours on day one (03 Nov). Enhanced wind speeds to near 800 km/s and total field values near 30 nT are expected with initial onset. Total field is likely to decrease early into day two (04 Nov), while elevated wind speeds are expected to persist through day three (05 Nov).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field increased from quiet to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels early in the period as the anticipated CIR began to influence Earths magnetosphere.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor (G1-Minor) storm conditions with major (G2-Moderate) storm levels possible on day one (03 Nov). Minor to major (G1-Minor/G2-Moderate) storm conditions are expected with a possible isolated period of severe (G3-Strong) storm levels as the CIR transitions into the HSS. Minor to major (G1-Minor/G2-Moderate) storm conditions are expected to persist early into day two (04 Nov). Field conditions are expected to taper down to active levels later into day two and three (04 Nov - 05 Nov) as wind speeds subside.

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