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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2449 (S12E51, Dao/beta) produced a C2/1f flare at 07/2321 UTC which was the largest event of the period. New Region 2451 (N03E18, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period, but along with the remaining active regions on the visible disk, was stable and inactive during the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) flares over the next three days (08-10 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 4,241 pfu observed at 07/1320 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (08-10 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the waning influence of a CME from 04 Nov that arrived at Earth at 06/1825 UTC. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 550 km/s to end-of-period values near 460 km/s. IMF total field strength values varied between 4 nT and 19 nT and Bz was primarily northward throughout the period, reaching a maximum of -9 nT. The phi angle was neutral early in the period before settling in a positive (away) orientation after 08/0300 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue a return to near-background levels until late on day one (08 Nov). The onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to cause a wind speed increase to around 500-600 km/s late on day one and slowly decrease through day three (10 Nov).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period at G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels then decreased and have been at quiet levels since the 07/2100-2400 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels mid-day to late on day one (08 Nov) due to waning CME effects and likely substorming. Unsettled to active conditions are expected for the remainder of day one as CME effects subside but the onset of a CIR and subsequent positive polarity CH HSS is expected. Quiet to active conditions are expected on days two and three (09-10 Nov) due to CH HSS influence.

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