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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2443 (N07E37, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the majority of the activity including the largest flare of the period, an impulsive M1/Sf at 31/1752 UTC. The region also produced numerous C-class events including a C9/1n flare at 31/1933 UTC. Region 2443 showed development in its intermediate and trailer portions and maintained its magnetic delta configuration. Region 2442 (N15W42, Bxo/beta) exhibited growth in its trailer spots and overall area. The remaining regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) for the next three days (01-03 Nov) from Region 2443.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (01-03 Nov) with a chance for high levels on 03 Nov in response to elevated solar wind speeds from the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three days (01-03 Nov).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) varied between 5 nT and 11 nT. Bz oscillated through the period, with a maximum southward deviation as low as -7 nT. Wind speeds averaged in the 340-380 km/s range. Phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (towards the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels on day one (01 Nov) with some minor perturbations possible as we change into a positive (away) solar sector. A recurrent, trans-equatorial CH is anticipated to become geoeffective early to midday on day two (02 Nov) with effects lasting into day three (03 Nov). Solar wind speeds reached 800 km/s last rotation (06-08 Oct) and measured 800-1000 km/s on STEREO-A instruments on 20 Oct, so indications are that it has maintained its strength and the Earth will experience similar speeds during this rotation.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov). A recurrent, trans-equatorial CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective early to midday on day two (02 Nov) with effects lasting into day three (03 Nov). Severe (G3-Strong on NOAA Scales) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02 Nov with minor to major (G1-G2/Minor-Moderate) storms likely to continue into 03 Nov as CH HSS effects persist.

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