[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels during the period. Region 2443 (N07W16, Fsc/beta) produced an M3/2b flare at 04/1352 UTC, along with associated Type II (est. shock speed 955 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. This event also had an associated partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1436 UTC. Analysis of the WSA-Enlil model indicated there was an Earth-directed component to this event that will likely reach Earth late on day three (07 Nov). Expected impacts are described later in this discussion. Region 2443 underwent magnetic simplification, losing its delta configuration, as well as decreasing in areal coverage and number of spots observed. However, it did remain the largest, most complex region on the visible disk.

Region 2445 (N16W83, Dai/beta) produced an M2/1N at 04/1203 UTC. This event had a Type II radio sweep associated with it, with estimate shock speed of 518 km/s. The associated CME was analyzed and determined to be off the Sun-Earth plane and should have no impacts at Earth. The region underwent further decay as it made its way around the west limb, losing its delta configuration within the trailer spot early in the period.

Region 2447 (N03E5,Hsx/alpha) exhibited decay with most of its spots, decaying almost completely by the end of the period.

Region 2448 (N06E72, Dso/beta) rotated onto the NE limb. While its trailer and leader spots were visible, they are still too close to the limb to ascertain an accurate spot group classification.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts for the next three days (05-07 Nov). The increased activity levels are primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 2443, 2445, and 2448.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period, with a peak flux of 4405 pfu at 04/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced in response to the M3/2B flare at 04/1352 UTC from Region 2443, but remained below S1 (Minor) thresholds.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one through three (05-07 Nov) in response to the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) radiation storm levels all three days, due primarily to the geoeffective position of Regions 2443 and 2445.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected waning CH HSS effects. Solar wind speeds exhibited a slow, but steady decrease from just over 700 km/s near the beginning of the period, to near 540 km/s by the end of the period. Total magnetic field began at 9 nT, but gradually decreased to 5 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component varied between 8 nT and -5 nT. The phi angle began the period oscillating between positive and negative sectors before becoming mostly positive (away) after 04/1400 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced early on day one (05 Nov) as CH HSS conditions persist. By day two (06 Nov), solar wind parameters are expected to recover from the CH HSS, returning to near ambient levels. Late on day three (07 Nov), the partial halo CME from 04 Nov is expected to impact Earth, enhancing solar wind parameters for the remainder of the period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period at minor (G1-Minor) storm levels, due to persistent effects from the positive polarity CH HSS. Conditions gradually returned to quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period during 05/0600-0900 UTC synoptic time frame.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (05 Nov) and into day two (06 Nov) as the CH HSS effects continue to weaken. Day three (07 Nov) is expected to be quiet to unsettled to begin the day. However, G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely late in the day as the partial halo CME from 04 Nov is expected to arrive at Earth.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://sunspotwatch.com/swc/ for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation