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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 13 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels, as a C1/Sf flare from a spotless area of plage located near S17E48 occurred at 13/0128 UTC. A newly emerged area of flux developed spots and was assigned NOAA/SWPC Region 2453 (N06E15, Bxo/beta). Regions 2448 (N06W35, Axx/alpha) and 2449 (S11W17, Cro/beta) underwent further decay and were inactive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed with available SOHO/LASCO imagery.
A large curve-shaped filament, covering nearly 35 degrees and centered at approximately S09E13, displayed active linear motion as observed in GONG/H-alpha imagery - but remained relatively stable despite its proximity to two negative polarity coronal holes and newly developed Region 2453.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (13-15 Nov).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 30,200 pfu observed at 12/1735 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (13-15 Nov). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, indicated waning effects of the positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was between 1 to 4 nT until after 13/0818 UTC, when it gradually increased to nearly 9 nT by periods end. The Bz component of the IMF was primarily southward and reached a maximum negative deviation of nearly -6 nT at 13/1023 UTC. Solar wind velocity continued a steady decline from about 460-480 km/s down to 350-360 km/s by about 13/0630 UTC. Solar wind speed began to increase afterwards, ending the period at about 400 km/s. The phi angle was primarily positive (away) most of the period, until about 13/0545 UTC, when it shifted to a predominantly negative (towards) sector.
Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to increase through day one (13 Nov) due to another, positive polarity CH HSS rotating into a geoeffective position. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected to continue into day two (14 Nov). By day three (15 Nov), winds will likely trend down towards ambient levels.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic field conditions were at quiet levels as the previous CH HSS rotated out of a geoeffective position and Earths magnetosphere came under the influence of more ambient conditions.
Forecast: On day one (13 Nov), quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with active conditions possible late in the day from the anticipated, isolated CH HSS becoming geoeffective. G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on day two (14 Nov) as the CH HSS approaches peak wind speeds. Day three (15 Nov) is expected to see mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active periods possible as the CH HSS subsides.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Nov 13 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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