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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2454 (N13W47, Dac/beta-gamma) was the most active region over the past 24 hours producing numerous weak to mid-level C-class flares; the largest were a pair of C5/Sf flares at 22/0210 UTC and 22/0538 UTC. The region underwent moderate development, growing in both areal extent and spot count and exhibited mixed magnetic polarities within its trailer spots. Region 2457 (N11E42, Dai/beta) underwent minor growth and produced a few weak C-class flares. Region 2456 (N06W47, Bxo/beta) was in decay. A large H-type spot appeared on the east limb near N08, but has not yet been numbered. This possibly could be the return of old active Region 2443 (N06, L=322), an M-class flare producer on its last transit.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with C-class flare activity over the next three days (22-24 Nov).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels over the next three days (22-24 Nov) and the greater than 10 Mev proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from initial values near 400 km/s to end-of-period values approaching 340 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) values reached 5 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -3 nT midway through the period. The phi angle was steady in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (22-24 Nov) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period (22-24 Nov).

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